The Millennium Bug Redivivus

Y2K chaos has been described as a hoax. 

Maybe it was a hoax. 

But since moving into the last year
of the 20th century (2000),
we have seen disastrous happenings
due to computer sabotage and human error.

The following is a digest of the powerful book,
The Millennium Bug, by Michael Hyatt. 

The disasters therein projected
may yet materialize,
though the cause may be other
than that which was identified in the book.

My digest of the book published here
will prove to be worthwhile reading,
especially for the believer in Messiah's return. 

For it is our duty to be prepared for disaster
for the sake of the rest of the world. 

And prepared we shall be.

"The Millennium Bug" story below is a tiny digest of the book by the same name by Michael Hyatt

Hyatt advises us to be prepared, and some preparation is better than no preparation at all.

Upon consideration, we may be surprised to discover that every area of our lives is affected by computers whether we own a computer or not. Our household appliances are regulated by computers -- our cars, our banks, our governments. And probably everyone who has ever worked with computers to any extent has experienced a computer "crash." The system goes down, data is lost or corrupted, and often as a result of causes never determined. As we consider how annoying and destructive a computer crash can be, consider now a scenario in which thousands of computers in hundreds of industries, governments, appliances and systems all crashed at the same time. Our lives would change drastically overnight, even on the most basic level.

The Millennium Bug (or "Y2K Bug") may cause just such upheaval in our lives. Since perhaps hundreds of thousands of computers in service right now may not be able to correctly recognize the date change from 1999 to 2000, on January 1, 2000, these thinking machines may, in concert, crash or spew incorrect data. The result of the "bug" will be exponential -- perhaps most of the world systems will be adversely affected, which means you and I will be adversely affected. Consider the possibilities: loss of electricity for weeks to months (since the power grid is controlled by computer), business failures, bank failures, utility failures, government failures, break down of society, anarchy, strife, poverty, tribulation. Consider one day of your own life without electricity and multiply it by millions and over an extended time.

The solution to the problem is really quite simple -- fix every date-related hardware and software glitch in the entire world and do it within one year. But there is not enough time to fix millions of lines of source code (much of which doesn't even exist anymore) or replace millions of embedded chips.

Nor is there money enough (billions of dollars) nor computer programmers enough. Many companies and governments are not even trying, knowing it is futile. For if the power grid goes down for any significant time, all the preparation in the world will not have made any difference anyway. The strategy is to let it all fail, then try to pick up the pieces. What will it be like for us after January 1, 2000, in the wake of the Millennium Bug? Michael Hyatt describes four possible scenarios.

The first scenario is that the Millennium Bug is merely hype promulgated by some people to make money from the the fear of others. We will all be ready, and then find that in the new Millennium, all has transisted smoothly and there really was nothing to worry about in the first place. He calls this the "nonscenario" because, in light of extensive research and in reality, this scenario is "not viable." With millions of lines of code as yet uncorrected, millions of peripherals unrepaired and millions of embedded date-sensitive computer chips (such as the one in your car) unreplaced, there is 100% likelihood that the adverse effects of the Bug will indeed be "viable."

The realistic scenario is the "Brownout," based on us being 90 - 95% successful in preparation (correcting code and replacing embedded chips). Although 5 - 10% of systems will fail, and these failing systems will affect many more (the domino effect), damage will be minimal and contained. In this scenario, there will be some recurring outages on the power grid lasting from one week to several months. Those few power companies which crash will affect others, since power companies are on a network. Remember a few years ago when a small, rural power station in Oregon crashed, and the entire West Coast of the United States went with it? In the Brownout scenario, there will be hundreds of outages.

In power outage condition, water will no longer be treated or pumped, septic systems in the city will be off and the water will become contaminated in some places (like in Milwaukee a few years ago -- 400,000 sick with cryptosporidium). Communications will be hampered -- phone lines will be jammed — callers will get a busy signal -- until the systems are repaired. Billing systems are also likely to be affected, and much frustration will come of that. Transportation will likely be down to minimal as many cars will not start (due to failure of embedded chips) Computer scheduling software for some airlines and train lines will also crash.

In finance, people may panic in the final months of 1999, causing bank runs, and after the Millennium some banks will have to shut down for awhile. Electronic Funds Transfer, the basis of the entire cashless society of today, will be disrupted to some extent. (ATMs might not work, or your Social Security might not get deposited, etc.) The IRS will certainly crash, so far now from readiness that it is inevitable. Medicare, Medicaid and health insurance payments and reimbursements will be late. There will be many lawsuits as a result of Y2K. (Some lawsuits are already pending.) Billing will be incorrect in many applications and people will refuse to pay until corrections are made. There may be serious world-wide recession. In the health industry, many critical processes will fail due to embedded, date-sensitive computer chips and power outages.

People will be annoyed, and there will be protesting and perhaps even riots. But, by and large, people will come together in the Brownout scenario to fight the common enemy while remaining confident toward the future.

The third scenario is the "Blackout" -- 70 - 80% of systems are corrected, but still we can expect multiple system failures, including the crashing of the power grid. If no electricity is running, there can be no computer repairs or manufacturing of spare parts. Once electricity is lost, everything else we take for granted is lost. What items in the room you now inhabit are run by electricity? How many electrical items could you live without? If the power goes out, the highest priority of government will be to get it back on line, and it many literally take months. While the power is out for months, other systems will also fail. Water will no longer run; neither will the pumps that bring up well water. Most will not know what to do if there is no running water; many will become sick from drinking contaminated water. There will be no disposal for human waste (excrement) -- there will be no place for raw sewage to go and no means to get it there. Eventually, because of the water / sewage problem, diseases related to uncleanness will spread rapidly.

Transportation will stop. With no transportation, the delivery of goods will also cease (as will the manufacturing of goods). Inventories will evaporate. Have you ever experience a hurricane? Supermarkets empty in a day. Gas and diesel will become liquid gold overnight. There will be no electronic communications -- no phones, TVs or lights. The banking business will be finished if there are no lights. Your bank account, pension, benefits, will be frozen for perhaps months. Cash will not be available, and the government will begin to print money (assuming their presses will still operate), devaluing it in the process. Most jobs will be finished. In the industry that I work in, no electricity, no job.

How many police and government officials will stay on the job if there is no pay? The president will have to evoke the Emergency Powers Act and we may see martial law. You will be left to fend for yourself for food and water and against looters and bands of thieves who will take it from you. Immediately, the low-tech Chinese military, with their WWII navy, would become the mightiest in the world. Over the last decade, the citizenry of the US have been disarmed, and they will pay for it in the Blackout scenario.

The final scenario described is "Meltdown." Electrical utilities are down for years or for good. Some nuclear reactors will meltdown, like at Three Mile Island in Pennsylvania or Chernobyl in the Ukraine. There is widespread hunger, starvation, radiation poisoning and disease in the United States after a short time for there will be no food or medicine manufactured anymore. Those that have the power will take what they need; Satan will surely rule. Without electricity, banking, telecommunications, Washington will be a non-issue. There will be no federal troops or police. Local gangs will take over the local government, just as was the case in the West of the 1880s. The populace will live in terror in this new "dark age" of war, famine and pestilence. The Meltdown scenario reminds us of several of the chapters of the Revelation.

How bad is it really going to be? Thirty-eight computer experts with a total of 670 years of experience were asked to rate the possible scenario after 2000 using the following measure:

5 = collapse of economy ("Blackout" / "Meltdown")

3 = bump in the road ("Brownout")

1 = nothing will happen (the "Nonscenario").

The average score of the experts was 3.96, right between the "Brownout" and "Blackout" scenarios. It all comes down to whether the power grid and the banking system will survive intact. If either crash, then we will experience from "Blackout" to "Meltdown." Yet has the government told us the truth about this? Are we inquiring about year 2000 compliance with our places of employ, with our banks, with our governments? More than anything else, these entities need to maintain our confidence no matter what.

Recently we spoke to an affluent Christian person about this. The reply was, "Well, if I do the right things, God will take care of me." I don't know what God is telling you, but according to the Bible, the thing to do now is to prepare. One pastor was asked, who replied, "Don't make a big thing about it." Nevertheless, preparation is called for, and some preparation is better than none. Imagine waking up on January 1, 2000 and there is no power or water or bank for a year. What would you do?

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